What next for Afghanistan? Don’t expect help from Joe Biden

Desperate crowds scale the exterior wall to access Hamid Karzai International Airport in Kabul
Desperate crowds scale the exterior wall to access Hamid Karzai International Airport in Kabul
REUTERS
Robert Fox16 August 2021
WEST END FINAL

Get our award-winning daily news email featuring exclusive stories, opinion and expert analysis

I would like to be emailed about offers, event and updates from Evening Standard. Read our privacy notice.

The Kabul government of Ashraf Ghani has collapsed in dust and ashes, though the Americans told us it wouldn’t fall so quickly. Even the American exit operation for their personnel is spectacularly chaotic – judging by the scenes at Kabul airport.

So what happens next? What, if anything can be done, to help the millions of refugees and distressed, and what does Taliban Regime Part 2 mean for international security?

The first Taliban regime took over in Kabul in 1996 after five years of bitter civil war. The Taliban then as now were largely Pashtu. They got to power on the back of a feckless, disinterested and utterly detached policy by western powers under American leadership. Now we see the second Taliban regime come to Kabul on the back of an equally short-sighted policy.

This isn’t the time for the finger-jabbing blame game between civil servants and politicians, which sadly is already beginning in Whitehall. Now we must face up to the reality of the new mark 2, better funded and supported, Taliban regime.

Their smooth diplomatic and public relations team in Doha has tried to assure Afghans that the new Taliban command seeks peace and conciliation, and will, under certain circumstances, allow girls to go to school. The difference between the soothing rhetoric from Qatar and acts on the ground are pretty stark. Girls have been driven from school in Herat, a well-known television comedian executed in Kandahar, Afghan air force pilots tracked and killed in their homes.

The first Taliban regime of Mullah Mohammed Omar was breathtakingly incompetent – with no idea about running a modern economy. This time we are told it will be different. Don’t bet on this.

Don’t bet on peace, either. The clan of Ahmad Shah Massood, murdered on the eve of 9/11, are already fortifying the Panjshir Valley under the leadership of his son. The Uzbek militias of Abdul Rashid Dostum have deep bases and support over the border in Uzbekistan, whither they have fled temporarily.

The biggest immediate challenge is the humanitarian disaster of hundreds of thousands – possibly millions – of refugees, who have little shelter and even less food and water. Aid will have to be shipped in by land and possibly air – but whether the Taliban will allow the opening of the airports and the land crossings is open to question. If they do, it will come at a price, judging by previous experience, in bribes and extortion.

One of the saddest losses is in sheer human talent and capital. Afghanistan did see the rise of a new literate and savvy youth, with functioning universities and teaching hospitals, and a vibrant media. With the declaration of the new Emirate of Islamic Afghanistan that goes. It is a huge loss, for years the one ray of hope against all the tribal jobbery and corruption of the Karzai and Ghani governments, which the western allies condoned too easily.

The refugee crisis, the imploding economy and security picture will bring a new combination of international powers and neighbours to prominence – among them, China, Iran, Pakistan, India, and Russia. Pathological civil war is a threat to all of them – as it is to the West. The extremists, retooled and refunded have been in the Taliban shadows for some time – in fact never really went away. These include the Al Qaeda cohort, elements of IS, Punjabi and Kashmiri militants, and the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan.

The story of Western intervention since 2001 has been one of planning dysfunction. Don’t expect much guidance from the Biden administration. Confused by the ground zero chaos in Kabul, they seem completely clueless about what’s happening now and what happens next.

Robert Fox is the Evening Standard’s Defence Editor

What do you think is next for Afghanistan? Let us know in the comments below.

Create a FREE account to continue reading

eros

Registration is a free and easy way to support our journalism.

Join our community where you can: comment on stories; sign up to newsletters; enter competitions and access content on our app.

Your email address

Must be at least 6 characters, include an upper and lower case character and a number

You must be at least 18 years old to create an account

* Required fields

Already have an account? SIGN IN

By clicking Create Account you confirm that your data has been entered correctly and you have read and agree to our Terms of use , Cookie policy and Privacy policy .

This site is protected by reCAPTCHA and the Google Privacy Policy and Terms of Service apply.

Thank you for registering

Please refresh the page or navigate to another page on the site to be automatically logged in