Is Vladimir Putin prepared to go for Russia’s nuclear option?

Robert Fox1 March 2022
WEST END FINAL

Get our award-winning daily news email featuring exclusive stories, opinion and expert analysis

I would like to be emailed about offers, event and updates from Evening Standard. Read our privacy notice.

Putin’s announcement that he is upgrading the alert status of Russia’s nuclear weaponry has sent a chill through the capitals and headlines of the world. Russia has the planet’s second largest nuclear arsenal, some 1500 active warheads and some 3,000 in reserve.

The US has 3,750 potentially active warheads, with some 2,000 in active in reserve.

Does this mean that Vlad, his forces steadily sinking into a Ukraine quagmire by many accounts, is prepared to go for the nuclear option? Could he press the red button and London, New York, Washington, Paris, Brussels be reduced to a nuclear winter?

The answer is complex. First, it was not clear what he was asking his bewildered generals to do when he announced the change of the status of nuclear forces to a new alert. He was using language which doesn’t match anything in Russia’s strict, and written, military doctrine.

Of course, he could launch a nuclear barrage. The weapon of choice would be the RSM-56 Bulava, the main submarine-launched missile – carried by the Borei class nuclear submarine since 2018. They have a range of about 5,000 miles. But they are precisely the boats and weapons the US, UK, and French fleets are configured to track and trace. Moreover, a strike from the Russian fleet, is likely to be met by a counter-strike from the ballistic missile boats of the three navies. The Royal Navy’s Vanguard boats carrying Trident already have the target coordinates for cities in Russia and Belarus – a Cold War hangover.

More likely, Putin is thinking of battlefield nuclear weapons: smaller nukes fitted to existing artillery and multiple rocket systems. Both Russian and American strategic theoreticians have suggested this would be limited and could be contained. On the contrary, a single nuclear barrage would be the first nuclear war since 1945, and the nuclear arms race would be global and involve dozens of nations.

Putin, in his characteristic playpen tyrant mode, could mean that he plans to use other exotically nasty weapons – chemical, biological, aerosol air-fuel munitions, and cluster bombs. Russia has sanctioned the use of chemical weapons on several occasions by Assad’s military in Syria. Warheads and simple barrel bombs could release sarin and chlorine – and even the nerve agent Novichok could be released in close-quarters fighting.

For the moment the Russians surrounding Kharkiv are relying on multiple rocket systems such as the BM21 Grad, and the more powerful BM30 Smerch, capable of firing the outlawed cluster munitions from 40 miles. More concerning, and deadly is the TOS 1 Alpha which fires thermobaric warheads at distance. This is a giant aerosol, incinerating all life across whole building blocks. In the opinion of most international jurists, the use of these types of weapon should automatically invite a charge of war crime especially in their indiscriminate use against civilian populations.

The TOS 1As mounted on lorries have been sighted by correspondents in the vicinity of both Kharkiv and Kyiv.

Create a FREE account to continue reading

eros

Registration is a free and easy way to support our journalism.

Join our community where you can: comment on stories; sign up to newsletters; enter competitions and access content on our app.

Your email address

Must be at least 6 characters, include an upper and lower case character and a number

You must be at least 18 years old to create an account

* Required fields

Already have an account? SIGN IN

By clicking Create Account you confirm that your data has been entered correctly and you have read and agree to our Terms of use , Cookie policy and Privacy policy .

This site is protected by reCAPTCHA and the Google Privacy Policy and Terms of Service apply.

Thank you for registering

Please refresh the page or navigate to another page on the site to be automatically logged in